Airdrop guide · BNB Smart Chain
Probable airdrop step by step tutorial
The Probable Points Program is live as of 2 November 2026. Its points page lets visitors connect a wallet, predict on markets, refer others and earn points, with Invite, Trading, Liquidity and Open interest rewards each marked Live. Probable is a prediction market on BNB Chain. A site banner says predict.fun acquired it, but the banner does not say the points program has closed.
Live · checked 2 November 2026
As of 2 November 2026, the Probable points page invites visitors to connect a wallet, predict, refer and earn points, and marks its Invite, Trading, Liquidity and Open interest rewards as Live. A banner across the site says predict.fun acquired Probable, and it does not say the points program has closed.
Probable Points Program is live as of 2 November 2026: connect a wallet, trade prediction markets, refer friends and earn weekly points on BNB Chain.
What is Probable?
Probable is a decentralised prediction market on BNB Chain. Visitors take a Yes or No side on a question, and every market carries its own order book and a written set of rules that decide how it resolves.
The questions range from crypto topics to world events. Examples on the site ask whether Base, Tempo or Abstract will launch a token, whether companies such as Kraken or OpenAI will list on a stock exchange, and whether a given public event will happen before a set date.
A banner on every page says Probable has been acquired by predict.fun. It offers a 2x refund on USDT fees, plus a conversion to Predict Points, and sends readers to a post on X for the migration details.
How Probable works
Each Probable market poses one question with two outcomes. The Base token market, for example, resolves to Yes if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026, and to No otherwise. Its rules add that the token must be publicly transferable and tradable, so an announcement alone does not count, and that the project's own information is the main resolution source, backed by credible reporting.
Trading happens through an order book: sellers post asks, buyers post bids, and a Yes or No share is priced in cents. Market pages also carry a notice that points can be earned by placing limit orders.
The points program pays for four kinds of activity, each marked Live on the points page. Invites earn points from the trading volume of the people you refer. Trading rewards go to activity on active markets, and the page says higher-quality trading earns more. Liquidity rewards go to orders kept near the market price on both outcomes. Open interest rewards go to positions held over time.
The points page says points are distributed every week and shows a weekly snapshot countdown. It gives no per-activity point amounts and does not say what the points are worth.
The Probable Points airdrop
The Probable Points Program pays points, distributed every week according to the points page. You earn them four ways: referring friends (based on their trading volume), trading on active markets, keeping liquidity near the market price on both outcomes, and holding positions over time. A wallet connection is the entry point. The points page gives no amounts.
Step by step: how to get the Probable Points airdrop
Stay safe: a real airdrop never asks for your seed phrase or private key. Use only the official links on this page, and treat any message that offers help with a claim as a scam.
Step 1: Open the Probable points page
Go to the Probable points page, which lists the four ways to earn and marks each as Live.
Step 2: Connect a wallet
Link your wallet from the points page. Once it is connected, you can generate your own referral code.
Step 3: Trade on active markets
Place orders on markets listed on Probable. Trading rewards go to activity on active markets, and higher-quality trading earns more points.
Step 4: Provide liquidity and hold positions
Keep orders near the market price on both outcomes for liquidity rewards, and hold active positions over time for open interest rewards.
Step 5: Invite friends with your referral code
Generate your referral code and share it. Points from invites depend on the trading volume of the people who join through it.
Step 6: Read the migration notice
Read the predict.fun post on X linked from the site banner, which covers the fee refund and the conversion to Predict Points.
Probable airdrop FAQ
Is the Probable airdrop still live?
- Yes, as of 2 November 2026. The Probable points page invites visitors to connect a wallet, predict, refer and earn points, and marks Invite, Trading, Liquidity and Open interest rewards as Live. A banner says predict.fun acquired Probable, but it does not say the points program has closed.
What does the Probable points program pay?
- It pays points, which the points page says are distributed every week. They come from referrals, trading on active markets, providing liquidity and holding positions over time. The points page gives no amounts. The site banner mentions a conversion to Predict Points.
Which chain does Probable run on?
- Probable describes itself as a decentralised prediction market on BNB Chain. The points page and the market pages do not name any other chain, so BNB Chain is the one the site states.
Does the Probable airdrop need KYC?
- No. Nothing on the points page asks for identity verification. The only way in that it shows is connecting a wallet, which also lets you generate a referral code. Trading, liquidity and open interest rewards come from placing orders and holding positions in markets, which involves your own funds.
What does the predict.fun acquisition mean for Probable users?
- A banner on the site says Probable has been acquired by predict.fun and that you can claim a 2x refund on your USDT fees, plus a conversion to Predict Points. The banner links to a post on X with the migration details.
Sources for this listing
- 01Probable - Decentralised Prediction Market on BNB Chainprobable.markets · read 2 November 2026
- 02Will Base launch a token by ___ ?: Probableprobable.markets · read 2 November 2026
- 03Probable - Decentralised Prediction Market on BNB Chainprobable.markets · read 2 November 2026
